Archive for August, 2005

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Economic Crisis Part II?


2005
08.30

Posted in current affairs, politics | No Comments »

The Rupiah nearly touched a new level of Rp 12,000/USD, levelling at Rp 10,700 before bouncing back to a Rp 10,500 following the Bank Indonesia’s intervention. The JSX also fell to around 940 and quickly bounced to 1000 level. There are few important market conditions that were observed:

-Oil hovering at USD 70/barrel
-Tomm is end of the month, meaning many debt obligations will fall due raising demand for the USD thus further depreciation of the Rupiah.

The recent budget delivered by the President used an assumption of USD 40/barrel – an assumption that is no longer realistic in the current market especially Indonesia now is a net oil importer.

Two things must be done:

- raise the interest rate to close the differential with the Fed
- reduce fuel subsidy now

The latter is seen as a political suicide, especially with Ramadhan coming up in October. So, it is only prudent for the BI to raise the rate to at least 10%, despite the inevitable impact of slowing economic growth. About 50 minutes ago, the BI has raised it by 75 basis point to 9.5%. Hopefully it will calm the market.

One thing that is notable is the absence of Jusuf Kalla, Indonesian VP, who ‘ran away’ to China, even though he has been ‘meddling’ with the make up of Indonesian economic team. Why must he go to China now? Even the President then delayed the travel when the fuel crisis hit Indonesia.

It is clear now that the current administration can no longer bank in the popularity it gained when it won the election. For the 3 years of Megawati’s administration, no such dramatic fall in the currency has ever occurred (i would admit that the external market condition was more favorable then, but that doesnt preclude active and prudent economic management to be undertaken by the current administration). Maybe it’s time for Indonesians to realise that the SBY’s administration is struggling and his pro-business stance doesn’t help to raise market sentiment and confidence even in this difficult time.

Mr. President, in this difficult time, you should and you must do better! I call for you to:

1. Reshuffle the cabinet especially the economic team by Friday!!
2. Reduce fuel subsidy
3. Increase local output of oil production
4. Provide incentives and concessions for foreign investors especially local/ foreign entities to open up new oil exploration fields
5. Reduce unnecessary government spending including travels and comparison studies
6. Quicken the pace of privatisation

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promise and commitment


2005
08.29

Posted in general, life in general | 2 Comments »

i was preping for job interview and that involved anticipating different sort of questions that might come up. the behavioural question is one of the trickiest. so there is this one question i lost my night sleep over:

what is your weakness?

obviously, the answer could be plain honest and simple, reflecting who you are. but in a competitive job market environment, you should and you must polish your anwer in such a way that: (a) it could be an advantage and (2) you are showing efforts to rectify your weakness.

so here is my prepared answer for any interview:

“I can be quite impatient working with people who are not prepared to respect the time schedule and show full commitment to the task we are doing. i know that this can create an unpleasant situation that might be detrimental to the overall project. However, i have been learning to deal with this weakness of mine through greater understanding of the people i’m working with, by being tactful and asking persistent questions rather than listing out my demands”

that is the full lid. because it’s truly me in a more polished kinda way.

so for those who dont know me well enough, there is one important thing that you need to keep in mind: don’t promise me things you cant keep (simple, isnt it?)

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Rupiah oh rupiah


2005
08.27

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Rupiah, the Indonesian currency is the second worst performing currency in the world for the past three months, following Zimbabwe. The recent breach of Rp 10,000 psychological level will have lasting impact on the business confidence, despite many government officials saying otherwise. The govt can only do what the govt will always do: reassure the market and prevent panic selling as well as speculation amongst the currency players.

The last time Rupiah fell this low was in 2001. People thought that the economy is improving yet the underperformance of Rupiah highlights many structural problems that cannot be easily repaired. plus, the oil price is creeping up really fast. this will further add pressure to the selling of Rupiah. simply, there are more demand for US dollars especially with major debt obligations falling due around this time. it will be sometime. the JSX who has been the star performer in the SE-Asia market will take a big hit at the year’s closing.

In the mean time, let the market decides and eventually it will appropriately price what is a good fundamental economic reform happening in the world’s 4th most populous country.

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google Talk


2005
08.26

Posted in technology | 1 Comment »

in the past three days, i have received invites to use google Talk. ok people… i already have it, not as a stand-alone chat program but integrated with my Trillian pro (using jabber plugin). i have problem connecting to the server for unknown reason. i kept disconnecting and reconnecting. that might be the reason why you will not see me online.

anyway…i heard the news about google talk last week when it was still a rumour. visiting talk.google.com didnt yield anything. but three days ago, when it was officially released, the subdomain came to live. i havent downloaded the stand alone software as i dont see the need to. it can be integrated with my Trillian using the jabber plugin. it’s not working exactly the way you want it to be, but it has stabilised in the past hour or so. so im quite happy about it.

this is definitely part of the google’s campaign against the aggressive IM players like MSN or Yahoo. before you know it, ur whole pc will run a Google OS (you heard it here first!). but competition can only bring benefits to end-consumers. we can only encourage it! So start downloading your google IM, to show the rest of the players that their lock-in consumer approach will no longer work. for open source is here to stay!

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learning from experience


2005
08.24

Posted in current affairs | 1 Comment »

Some young australian travellers in various neighbouring countries don’t seem to appreciate the heavy penalties attached to anti-drugs laws (red – overgeneralisation is intended). the recent arrests of two young australians in two different parts of Indonesia might reignite the debate that instilled the fury of majority of Australians over Indonesian treatment for the Corby’s case.

but one have to understand the strong anti-drug stance of Indonesian governments. the use of drugs in Indonesian society is prevalent. Drug is considered the ‘cool’ thing among Indonesian youth and no longer available just to the ‘elite’ class. In fact, drug is used as a ‘quick fix’ to divert one’s attention from the hard and harsh reality of slow-improving life condition in the country.

That is why SBY’s government (and previous Indonesian governments) have always adopted a staunch believe that heavy penalties and punishments are the only way to deter people – let’s face it, drug is not a permanent fix. it lowers self-esteem, it disrupts a normal functioning of society and it incites various social problems that can be allayed by other means.

The only changing difference between the old and new Indonesia is enforcement. In the past, the government through police and the judicial system did not really ‘enforce’ the tough drug laws as they were living in denial. They could not accept the reality that a lot of Indonesian people – cultured people, are using drugs and that this has widespread implications to many other facets of life. Only in the past two years, the drive to eradicate this problem supported by all layers of society started to gain momentum.

Perhaps, the peak is when the SBY sent SMS from the ‘President of Republic of Indonesia’ to all Indonesian mobile users in June to inform the government’s strong stance against the drug and urge the society to work with the government on this issue.

For those who defy and never learn, there is only one final definitive outcome: punishment (obviously through a proper application of due process of law).

Because they deserve it regardless whether you are a local or foreigner.

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the end of NARAL?


2005
08.19

Posted in america, current affairs, general, politics | No Comments »

the recent debacle over NARAL’s attack ad on Robert’s nomination is a clear sign that the pro-choice movement will do anything to protect Roe v Wade. Even in his resignation over the controversy, David E. Seldin, NARAL’s communication director, defended the ad with a ‘100 percent accurate’ disclaimer. McElroy, the editor of iFeminists.com, a well known feminist, refused to be associated with the movement and the ad. She claimed that the abortion debate is ‘intellectually bankrupt’ as revealed by the ad.

So why did NARAL spend $500,000 budget on the ad, just to later retracted it and hoped it will fade away. Because it wants to keep the debate alive, even through blunder and slander.

This will mark the beginning of the end for NARAL’s support among the left-wing American women. Mark my word, they have usurped the trust these people have given to the organisation and chipped it away at any cost.

The next time when Sen Clinton announces her candidacy for the highest office, she will be quick to disassociate herself with the movement. The movement is not only morally corrupt, it is dangerous. No wonder Frost (D) has been making claim, ‘the religious faith does not belong to just one party’. It is nice to hear rethorical change in the way the Dems is approaching US politics, far removed from the flip-floppy nature made famous by the defeated-former-presidential-candidate Sen Kerry. Obviously, only now they realise that they no longer represent the majority of the people. My response, where is the action? Dems, its time for a change!

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PEACE… (finally)


2005
08.16

Posted in current affairs, politics | No Comments »

The Government of Republic of Indonesia and The Free Aceh Movement have finally signed a peace accord (an MoU).

The separatist movement has been going on for three decades and this might be the final chapter. No details of the MoU have been released to the public but it was understood that it would have include:

-the ability to create local political parties
-greater atonomy
-release of political prisoners and amnesty

SBY’s govt is definitely scoring big on this one, especially being able to have one stitched up before he faces the House of Reps on Tuesday (Indonesia’s 60th Independence Day) to deliver his annual State of the Nation address.

May we have an everlasting peace in Aceh…

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haze..haze


2005
08.11

Posted in general | 1 Comment »

everytime the ‘haze season’ hits malaysia and singapore (and most part of south east asia), it reminds me of the ‘O’ level malay exam when i was in singapore. ‘Jerebu’ was the malay term for haze, something that i had never heard of. the funny thing was, i didnt find out the meaning until after the exam. it might have costed me that A1 in the written paper.

now, the haze season is back again. and there is no country to blame other than indonesia. the visibility level in the main cities of Malaysia is apparently 1 km. the polution index is registering high triple digits. yes, those forest fires – the quick fix to open up new lands for palm oil plantations.

guess who own those plantations? the malaysian businessmen. so much is the cost of doing business.