I gave my greatest respect for Lucifer’s campaign in defying the calls of many to let go of her dream. Yes, she won Ohio, Texas and Rhodes Island. Does she have a convincing case to go forward?
No.
Because simply the maths dont add up! Democratic Party is apportioning delegates based on candidates’ share of the primary/caucus results. It’s not a winner-take-all approach like the Republican. With Obama already leading before the March 4th and a net gain of approximately only 10 for Lucifer from the recent contests, it’s unlikely that Lucifer will win any meaningful pledged delegates count.
Superdelegates are her only hope and its unlikely that they will be abandoning the wishes of many young voters who came out in large numbers to participate. This is a hypocritical stance especially since its the party who shouted ‘Bush disenfranchised voters in 2000.
Thanks to Slate’s Delegate calculator, i tried to put 60-40 win for her in every contests left and she will still be short by 15 pledged delegates (1612-1597 for Obama). It’s impossible.
Alter is more realistic in the final projections, here is what he said:
Let’s assume that on Saturday in Wyoming, Clinton’s March 4 momentum gives her an Ohio-style 10-point win, confounding every expectation. Next Tuesday in Mississippi, where African-Americans play a big role in the Democratic primary, she shocks the political world by again winning 55-45.
Then on April 22, the big one—Pennsylvania—and it’s a Clinton blowout: 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates. She wins both of Guam’s two delegates on May 3 and Indiana’s proximity to Illinois does Obama no good on May 6. The Hoosiers go for Clinton 55-45 and the same day brings another huge upset in a heavily African-American state. Enough blacks desert Obama to give North Carolina to Hillary in another big win, 55-45, netting her seven more delegates.
May 13 in West Virginia is no kinder to Obama, and he loses by double digits, netting Clinton two delegates. Another 60-40 landslide on May 20 in Kentucky nets her 11 more. The same day brings Oregon, a classic Obama state. Ooops! He loses there 52-48. Clinton wins by 10 in Montana and South Dakota on June 3 and the scheduled primary season ends on June 7 in Puerto Rico with another big Viva Clinton! Clinton pulls off a 60-40 landslide, giving her another 11 delegates.
Given that I’ve put not a thumb but my whole fist on the scale, this fanciful calculation gives Hillary the lead, right? Actually, it makes the score 1,625 to 1,584 for Obama. A margin of 39 pledged delegates may not seem like much, but remember, the chances of Obama losing state after state by 20-point margins are slim to none.
So please concede for the good of the party.
Look, I think there are some valid comments on the current race but don’t use the party as your rally cry - better or worse, you know your loyalty has bever been to the party. Of country, of ideology, hell, even his cult of personality… but not the sake of party. It’s too hypocritical.
Thanks for your comment.
I think you are missing a big point on my post. It’s not about a party loyalist trying to convince the ‘elder’. I have never pretended that i am a Democrat or Republican. So this post is not about me being a ‘loyal Democrat’ and therefore hypocritical on my stance. Anyone who visited my blog can easily spot the banners on the right. Those who have followed longer have seen my previous postings on various issues. I believe that both parties have something good to offer and i have the right to cherry-pick those offerings. I make no apologies for it.
‘For the good of the party’ comment meant to be construed as the benefits everyone will receive for having competitive scenes where both parties (and more if possible) will ‘fight’ in terms of issues and values. Here we are with Republican nominee already decided and Democrats will spent a lot of resources where it’s really unnecessary because the winner is quite clear. I think its easily understood that in any other year, if it wasnt Clinton, the Democratic nomination will already be settled. In fact, i think this is a point worth raising in a new post!